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曾仕強 易經與企業決策管理

曾仕強 易經與企業決策管理

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           我們知道,《易經》在企業管理方面有著廣泛的應用,而本教程主要講到的是《易經》在企業決策管理方面的運用。在學習本教程之前,我們先來對企業決策管理進行一定的了解。
      企業決策管理是對企業生產經營的決策過程進行管理的活動,即確立決策目標,搜集相關信息,謀劃多決策方案,最優方案的選擇與決定,執行決策,反饋控制的活動過程的管理。
      在今天這個急劇變化的市場上,高效的業務決策管理可以帶來重要的競爭優勢。但是專家說,如果組織不能認清他們現有的流程和目標的話,即使是最好的決策管理技術也將會是無效的。
      發現:決策管理的關鍵第一步
      最成功的項目能夠最好的處理做了什么樣的決策,它在其它的業務中的位置在哪,好的決策是怎樣的,以及怎么制定決策,企業可以獲得所有這些信息在決策管理的發現階段。這關鍵的第一步包括收集和分析業務數據,識別最重要的決策,和決定哪一個決策管理會帶來利益。在這個努力中IT和企業都有一定的角色。做的好,這個方法可以帶來更有效率的決策,從更容易管理和更好的與業務目標結合在一起。
      分析數據,識別決策
      雖然這聽起來可能像一個簡單的過程,收集業務信息可以給發現工作創造重大挑戰。這是因為關注決策管理的人通常是業務方面的人員方,他們往往缺乏對數據的訪問。解決方案是:更好的業務對IT的協作,在某種程度上,你發現了數據,所以IT需要一個數據管理架構和工具,從而給那些需要做決策的人提供信息。
      IT應該從其它方面介入。例如,分析學專家可以從日益增長的成堆的結構化和非結構化的信息,或隱藏在組織中的“大數據”中收集決策模式。對于這類工作,數據挖掘,預測分析和先進的可視化工具都很流行。你正在做的事情的底線是建立一個決策模型之類的,這意味著什么可能有很大的差異。在某些情況下,你可能通過采訪人們來編纂規則和政策,而另一些情況下,你要花費幾個月的時間來進行預測分析和資源查找。
      很多成功的發現計劃都采用了這種技術:決策依賴模型。該方法涉及最先從通過發布決策的主要組件開始,然后返回工作識別出決策依賴的較少的因素。這意味著企業可以深入研究一組特定的流程和規則來捕獲數據,分析、預測和政策進行有效的決策。更多的傳統的發現決策的手段仍然是重要的,雖然他們不是經常會涉及到技術。專家說,業務分析師通常只需要跟整個企業的員工進行交談即可從中找出最常見和重要的日常決策。
      雖然經理,員工和該領域的專家們可以提供有價值的建議給他們所做的決定,以及怎樣使他們更好,但他們每一個都可能對決策有有短淺的目光。提供一個更全面,企業范圍的視角的一種方式是:從公司與客戶的第一個交互開始,然后跟蹤一切事情,在交付給用產品或服務時所發生的事情。這種方法幫助人們了解每一個或伴隨著制定的自動決策給所有的用戶體驗所帶來的影響,這往往是最重要的業務目標的中心所在。
      決策的正確性
      當然,不是所有的關鍵決策對決策管理都是很適合的。在發現過程中的一個重要問題是,這個工具是否能幫助你做出更好決策,很多決策不能服從于工具。例如,有些決策每次都不同,所以難以做出標準的管理方案。而另外一些決策很依賴于人工決策,因此自動化可能就會限制制定更好決策的能力。
      為了找到符合決策管理法案的決策,要尋找兩個因素:重復性和復雜性。
      最好的決策是那些重復最多的,因為你所獲得的利益會因為你所做決策的次數多而增加,這也是使之復雜的東西。如果太瑣碎,那么就不值得對它應用新技術。另一個因素是能夠把決策本身與它的業務表現及目標聯系上。沒有這聯系的話,企業將難以證明一個管理決策軟件投資。一些主要的戰略決策,例如新產品的投資,可能也是很好候選,當人們考慮到決策管理時,他們通常不會想到這個,但是這是他們應該想到的。一旦決策管理已經啟動,組織要定期重溫這個發現階段。為了得到更優化的決策,發現過程要必須持續時行,因為變量和環境在改變。

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